2/24/2007 Update
Last week we went 8 up and 6 down and 1 even. LINN.ob holds first place on our "biggest dog" list followed by INFT, DWCH, PARL and SPNC. For the week, 2007 year-to-date, and since we started this Blog in January 2006, our model portfolio is +.8%,+6.6% and +23.0% respectively. Since inception we are 14 stocks up and 5 down (2 of which are down less than 5%).
Spectranetics and PDL BioPharma released earnings last week.
The model portfolio assumes $10,000 invested in each stock, less $10 commission each way (TD Ameritrade rate).
Spectranetics (SPNC-Recommended 9/2/2006)
Buy price $10.65, Valuation $18-$20
Down $.39 to $10.62 last week. Shorts won the battle last week, despite a very good earnings report. We got the revenue "pop" we were hoping for --+44% over last year, but after an early spike up to $11.80, down we went. Things seem to be going great at the company, laser placements are up, disposable sales are up. They lost a bit of money, due the a litigation expense, but only a small amount. Guidance for next year was decent ($79-$83 million in revenue and about break-even on the bottom line--they are always conservative to a flaw) and did not include any revenue for the TurboBooster.
Now down a tiny .3% so far. BUY.
QAD Inc. (QADI-Recommended 6/14/2006)
Buy price $6.93, Valuation $13.69 (was $13.73 and $11.86)
Closed at $8.53, up $.46. Robinson Humphrey gave QAD an upgrade last week. So this one is starting to get noticed. Trading at 62% of valuation. Earnings due March 15th. No news. Has $1.07 in cash also.
Up 23% so far. HOLD.
PDL BioPharma Inc. (PDLI-Recommended 5/21/2006)
Buy price $19.31, Valuation > $30
Closed at $19.49, up $.33. Earnings last week. Q4 revenues were up 29% to $108 million, GAAP loss was huge due to a write-down ($.78 per share) but Non-GAAP income was $.05 per share. PDLI was cash flow positive for the year and had over $400 million of cash at the end of 2006. Guidance for 2007 was $450-$500 million in revenues and a Non-GAAP profit of $.38-$.54 per share. Their drug pipeline continues to expand and we still think that PDLI is a bargain at this price. This however, remains a very volatile stock.
Now up 1%. BUY.
MIVA Inc. (MIVA-Recommended 3/18/2006)
Buy price $3.80, Valuation $7.52 (was $7.38 and $9.10)
MIVA closed at $4.35, up $.01. Now up 15%. HOLD.
DataWatch Corp. (DWCH-Recommended 2/12/2006)
Buy price $3.21 (averaged down from $3.66), Valuation $8.32 (was $7.50, $7.63, $9.31)
Closed at $3.01, up $.11 for the week. Seeing more volume on this one too.
Now down only 6%. BUY.
Inforte Corp. (INFT-Bought January 13, 2006)
Buy price $4.11, Valuation $6.13 (was $6.95, $6.86)
Down $.03 to $3.57 last week. Has $2.64 per share in cash. Price objective $5.50.
Now down 13%. Like watching "moss grow". HOLD.
Mobius Management Systems (MOBI-Recommended 11/12/2006)
Buy price $6.68 (averaged down from $7.08), Valuation $12.82, was $12.69
Up $.07 to $7.12 last week. Volume (and price) seems to be picking up a bit for MOBI. Maybe we will see a good price move soon.
Up 7%. HOLD.
RiT Technologies (RITT-Recommended 11/12/2006)
Buy price $1.00, Valuation $3.36 (Was $2.69)
No news. Closed up $.08 at $1.48 last week.
Up 48%. HOLD.
Parlux Fragrances (PARL-Recommended 11/30/2006)
Buy price $6.65, Valuation $13.77)
PARL closed at $6.53, down $.26 last week. They received another delisting notice from the SEC due to their failure to file their September 2006 Form 10Q. We think the stock price will continue to vacilate for a while until we get some positive news.
Down 2%. HOLD.
OB-abies (Bulletin Board Listed Stocks)
ARI Networks (ARIS.ob-Recommended 8/19/2006)
Buy price $2.06, Valuation $5.28 (was $5.28, $5.21)
Closed at $2.10, up $.15 last week. This stock is still illiquid, so price moves are fairly meaningless at this point. However, ARI traded every day last week and actually did 68,000 shares on Thursday and got up to $2.28 (normal daily volume is 5,000). Earnings due March 8th after the market close. Hoping for some revenue growth here. No very concerned with the bottom line as long as any loss is not BIG.
Now up 2% so far. HOLD. Still a Huge valuation gap here.
Lion Inc. (LINN.ob-Recommended 4/15/2006)
Buy price $.36, Valuation $.62 (was $.66 and before that-$.79)
Closed at $.28, down $.02 last week. Still trading at only 45% of our current valuation. Earnings due March 8th, after the close. Unfortunately we are not expecting great things here.
Down 22%. HOLD until we get some revenue growth and stop losing money (same story as last quarter).
OPTIO Software Inc. (OPTO.ob-Recommended 3/22/2006)
Buy price $1.25, Valuation $2.89 (was $2.54 and 2.88)
Closed at $1.60, down $.10. Has $.44 in cash per share also. We are now stuck in the $1.60-$1.70 range. Maybe we will see north of $2.00 this year.
28% gain so far. HOLD.
Avatech Solutions Inc. (AVSO.ob-Bought November 28, 2005)
Buy price $1.19, NEW Valuation $3.29 (was $2.69, $3.36, $3.81)
Stock closed at $1.70, up $.04. No news, but the price keeps creeping up, even in a crummy market like last week.
Now up 43%. HOLD.
CTI Holdings (CTIG.ob-Recommended 2/25/2006)
Buy price $.27 ask, Valuation $1.13 (Was $1.05, $.82)
Ask price fell $.01 to $.33. Closed at $.34. Cash is (was) $.24 per share. Nine weeks ago CTI announced the purchase of Ryder Systems LTD. an international provider of electronic and on-line billing solutions and developer of VoIP business applications. Eight weeks ago they filed an 8-K, with details of the financing they got to fund the $11 million purchase--but still no details of what they bought.
Now up 22% so far (based on ask price). HOLD until we see what we just bought.
INYX Inc. (IYXI.ob-Bought January 3, 2006)
Buy price $1.91, Valuation--over $3.00)
Closed unchanged at $2.30. Still waiting for the "attractive cash offer" that management says is coming in February--only 3 trading days left, although another delay would not surprize us. Hopefully it will be attractive by our standards and be at least $3 per share--so we can book at least a 50% gain on this one. Bank debt is now scheduled for repayment by March 31, 2007 and they have arranged financing for their latest acquisition.
Up 20% HOLD.
Spectranetics and PDL BioPharma released earnings last week.
The model portfolio assumes $10,000 invested in each stock, less $10 commission each way (TD Ameritrade rate).
Spectranetics (SPNC-Recommended 9/2/2006)
Buy price $10.65, Valuation $18-$20
Down $.39 to $10.62 last week. Shorts won the battle last week, despite a very good earnings report. We got the revenue "pop" we were hoping for --+44% over last year, but after an early spike up to $11.80, down we went. Things seem to be going great at the company, laser placements are up, disposable sales are up. They lost a bit of money, due the a litigation expense, but only a small amount. Guidance for next year was decent ($79-$83 million in revenue and about break-even on the bottom line--they are always conservative to a flaw) and did not include any revenue for the TurboBooster.
Now down a tiny .3% so far. BUY.
QAD Inc. (QADI-Recommended 6/14/2006)
Buy price $6.93, Valuation $13.69 (was $13.73 and $11.86)
Closed at $8.53, up $.46. Robinson Humphrey gave QAD an upgrade last week. So this one is starting to get noticed. Trading at 62% of valuation. Earnings due March 15th. No news. Has $1.07 in cash also.
Up 23% so far. HOLD.
PDL BioPharma Inc. (PDLI-Recommended 5/21/2006)
Buy price $19.31, Valuation > $30
Closed at $19.49, up $.33. Earnings last week. Q4 revenues were up 29% to $108 million, GAAP loss was huge due to a write-down ($.78 per share) but Non-GAAP income was $.05 per share. PDLI was cash flow positive for the year and had over $400 million of cash at the end of 2006. Guidance for 2007 was $450-$500 million in revenues and a Non-GAAP profit of $.38-$.54 per share. Their drug pipeline continues to expand and we still think that PDLI is a bargain at this price. This however, remains a very volatile stock.
Now up 1%. BUY.
MIVA Inc. (MIVA-Recommended 3/18/2006)
Buy price $3.80, Valuation $7.52 (was $7.38 and $9.10)
MIVA closed at $4.35, up $.01. Now up 15%. HOLD.
DataWatch Corp. (DWCH-Recommended 2/12/2006)
Buy price $3.21 (averaged down from $3.66), Valuation $8.32 (was $7.50, $7.63, $9.31)
Closed at $3.01, up $.11 for the week. Seeing more volume on this one too.
Now down only 6%. BUY.
Inforte Corp. (INFT-Bought January 13, 2006)
Buy price $4.11, Valuation $6.13 (was $6.95, $6.86)
Down $.03 to $3.57 last week. Has $2.64 per share in cash. Price objective $5.50.
Now down 13%. Like watching "moss grow". HOLD.
Mobius Management Systems (MOBI-Recommended 11/12/2006)
Buy price $6.68 (averaged down from $7.08), Valuation $12.82, was $12.69
Up $.07 to $7.12 last week. Volume (and price) seems to be picking up a bit for MOBI. Maybe we will see a good price move soon.
Up 7%. HOLD.
RiT Technologies (RITT-Recommended 11/12/2006)
Buy price $1.00, Valuation $3.36 (Was $2.69)
No news. Closed up $.08 at $1.48 last week.
Up 48%. HOLD.
Parlux Fragrances (PARL-Recommended 11/30/2006)
Buy price $6.65, Valuation $13.77)
PARL closed at $6.53, down $.26 last week. They received another delisting notice from the SEC due to their failure to file their September 2006 Form 10Q. We think the stock price will continue to vacilate for a while until we get some positive news.
Down 2%. HOLD.
OB-abies (Bulletin Board Listed Stocks)
ARI Networks (ARIS.ob-Recommended 8/19/2006)
Buy price $2.06, Valuation $5.28 (was $5.28, $5.21)
Closed at $2.10, up $.15 last week. This stock is still illiquid, so price moves are fairly meaningless at this point. However, ARI traded every day last week and actually did 68,000 shares on Thursday and got up to $2.28 (normal daily volume is 5,000). Earnings due March 8th after the market close. Hoping for some revenue growth here. No very concerned with the bottom line as long as any loss is not BIG.
Now up 2% so far. HOLD. Still a Huge valuation gap here.
Lion Inc. (LINN.ob-Recommended 4/15/2006)
Buy price $.36, Valuation $.62 (was $.66 and before that-$.79)
Closed at $.28, down $.02 last week. Still trading at only 45% of our current valuation. Earnings due March 8th, after the close. Unfortunately we are not expecting great things here.
Down 22%. HOLD until we get some revenue growth and stop losing money (same story as last quarter).
OPTIO Software Inc. (OPTO.ob-Recommended 3/22/2006)
Buy price $1.25, Valuation $2.89 (was $2.54 and 2.88)
Closed at $1.60, down $.10. Has $.44 in cash per share also. We are now stuck in the $1.60-$1.70 range. Maybe we will see north of $2.00 this year.
28% gain so far. HOLD.
Avatech Solutions Inc. (AVSO.ob-Bought November 28, 2005)
Buy price $1.19, NEW Valuation $3.29 (was $2.69, $3.36, $3.81)
Stock closed at $1.70, up $.04. No news, but the price keeps creeping up, even in a crummy market like last week.
Now up 43%. HOLD.
CTI Holdings (CTIG.ob-Recommended 2/25/2006)
Buy price $.27 ask, Valuation $1.13 (Was $1.05, $.82)
Ask price fell $.01 to $.33. Closed at $.34. Cash is (was) $.24 per share. Nine weeks ago CTI announced the purchase of Ryder Systems LTD. an international provider of electronic and on-line billing solutions and developer of VoIP business applications. Eight weeks ago they filed an 8-K, with details of the financing they got to fund the $11 million purchase--but still no details of what they bought.
Now up 22% so far (based on ask price). HOLD until we see what we just bought.
INYX Inc. (IYXI.ob-Bought January 3, 2006)
Buy price $1.91, Valuation--over $3.00)
Closed unchanged at $2.30. Still waiting for the "attractive cash offer" that management says is coming in February--only 3 trading days left, although another delay would not surprize us. Hopefully it will be attractive by our standards and be at least $3 per share--so we can book at least a 50% gain on this one. Bank debt is now scheduled for repayment by March 31, 2007 and they have arranged financing for their latest acquisition.
Up 20% HOLD.
posted by Cheap Stock Investor | 2:57 PM
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