3/17/2007 Update
Last week we went 8 up and 6 down and 2 even. LINN.ob holds first place on our "biggest dog" list followed by INFT, PARL, DWCH, MIVA, PDLI, BDR and SPNC. For the week, 2007 year-to-date, and since we started this Blog in January 2006, our model portfolio is +.3%,+4.9% and +21.1% respectively. Since inception we are 12 stocks up and 8 down (5 of which are down less than 10%).
We managed a small gain last week and are up 4.9% so far in 2007, while the DOW, NASDAQ and the S+P 500 are all down 2-3%, and all were down again last week.
Earnings on MIVA and QADI and news on SPNC and PDLI last week. RITT continued to barrel along and is now up 77%.
The model portfolio assumes $10,000 invested in each stock, less $10 commission each way (TD Ameritrade rate).
Spectranetics (SPNC-Recommended 9/2/2006)
Buy price $10.65, Valuation $18-$20
Jumped $.89 to $10.60 last week.
SPNC released news that the FDA has allowed them to end their CELLO enrollment (after 61 enrollees instead of the planed 85) early based on good preliminary results. This is terrific news. Is all goes well, we could see some revenue from "above-the-knee" procedures before the end of the year--which is not included in the Company's projections. They also presented at Citigroup last week. This is a great company with great prospects that is executing well--but the stock continues to lag.
Now down .5% so far. BUY.
QAD Inc. (QADI-Recommended 6/14/2006)
Buy price $6.93, NEW Valuation $15.92 (was $13.69 $13.73 and $11.86)
Closed at $8.61, up $.15.
Trading at 54% of our new valuation of $15.92. Earnings last week were good. Revenues up 11% to $66.5 million and they made $.14 per share. For 2008 they are projecting $254-$266 million in revenue and $.26 to $.36 per share in net income (including $.12 per share for stock compensation expense) Has $1.19 in cash also.
Up 24% so far. BUY.
PDL BioPharma Inc. (PDLI-Recommended 5/21/2006)
Buy price $19.31, Valuation > $30
Closed at $18.72, up $.02.
On March 12th, PDLI "said the ongoing mid-stage trial of daclizumab, a humanized monoclonal antibody, met its main goal in relapsing multiple sclerosis." This drug is a collaboration with Biogen. The stock got up to $19.55 at one point last week, but then drifted back down to end up only $.02.
Activist investment firm Third Point LLC, which owns 8 million shares or 7.5% of the company, continues to lurk in the background. We think that PDLI is a bargain at this price. This however, remains a very volatile stock.
Now down 3%. BUY.
MIVA Inc. (MIVA-Recommended 3/18/2006)
Buy price $3.80, NEW Valuation $7.37 (was $7.52, $7.38 and $9.10)
MIVA closed at $3.65, down $.34.
Earnings last week were not dazzling. Revenues were up less than 1% from the prior year and they lost $6.2 million. They continue to cut expenses and expect to continue this in Q1 2007. Even so, our valuation did not drop very much, so we will hold the course here for a while longer.
Now down 4%. HOLD.
DataWatch Corp. (DWCH-Recommended 2/12/2006)
Buy price $3.21 (averaged down from $3.66), Valuation $8.32 (was $7.50, $7.63, $9.31)
Closed at $2.98, down $.01 for the week.
No news other than some more executive promotions. Go figure.
Now down 7%. BUY.
Inforte Corp. (INFT-Bought January 13, 2006)
Buy price $4.11, Valuation $6.13 (was $6.95, $6.86)
Down $.08 to $3.44 last week.
No news.
Has $2.64 per share in cash. Price objective $5.50.
Now down 16%. HOLD.
Mobius Management Systems (MOBI-Recommended 11/12/2006)
Buy price $6.68 (averaged down from $7.08), Valuation $12.82, was $12.69
Up $.15 to $7.36 last week.
No news.
Up 10%. HOLD.
RiT Technologies (RITT-Recommended 11/12/2006)
Buy price $1.00, Valuation $3.36 (Was $2.69)
Closed up $.09 at $1.77 last week.
No news. Looks like this one still wants to go higher.
Up 77%. HOLD.
Parlux Fragrances (PARL-Recommended 11/30/2006)
Buy price $6.65, Valuation $13.77)
PARL closed at $5.80, up $.01 last week.
We think the stock price will continue to vacillate for a while until we get some positive news. Even a 10Q filing might cause this one to spike up.
Down 13%. BUY.
Blonder Tongue Laboratories (BDR-Recommended 3/4/2007)
Buy price $1.83, Valuation $5.88.
Closed at $1.80 down $.01 for the week.
No news.
Down 1.6%. BUY
OB-abies (Bulletin Board Listed Stocks)
ARI Networks (ARIS.ob-Recommended 8/19/2006)
Buy price $2.06, Valuation $5.03 (was $5.28, $5.28, $5.21)
Closed at $2.10, unchanged last week.
This stock is still illiquid, so price moves are fairly meaningless at this point.
Now up 2%. BUY. Still a Huge valuation gap here.
Lion Inc. (LINN.ob-Recommended 4/15/2006)
Buy price $.36, Valuation $.57 (was $.62, $.66 and before that-$.79)
Closed at $.24, down $.03 last week.
Still trading at only 42% of our current valuation. We will give LION another quarter ot two to see if they can turn things around. They are still "cheap" compared to our valuation.
Down 33%. HOLD until we get some revenue growth and stop losing money (same story as last quarter).
OPTIO Software Inc. (OPTO.ob-Recommended 3/22/2006)
Buy price $1.25, Valuation $2.89 (was $2.54 and 2.88)
Closed at $1.44, down $.11 last week.
No news and volume was light. Has $.44 in cash per share. We have now dropped out of the $1.60-$1.70 range and even below the $1.50 level that took so long to reach. Still hoping we will see north of $2.00 this year.
15% gain so far. HOLD.
Avatech Solutions Inc. (AVSO.ob-Bought November 28, 2005)
Buy price $1.19, Valuation $3.29 (was $2.69, $3.36, $3.81)
Stock closed at $1.70, up $.07.
Looks like the "block overhang" got out of the way last week. Maybe we move higher from here.
Now up 43%. HOLD.
CTI Holdings (CTIG.ob-Recommended 2/25/2006)
Buy price $.27 ask, Valuation $1.28 (Was $1.13, $1.05, $.82)
Ask price stayed at $.35. Closed at $.34.
No news.
Up 30% based on the ASK price. BUY
INYX Inc. (IYXI.ob-Bought January 3, 2006)
Buy price $1.91, Valuation--over $3.00)
Closed at $2.23, up $.04 last week.
Still waiting on the "attractive cash offer" that was promised by the end of February. Hopefully the offer will come, and it will be attractive by our standards and be at least $3 per share--so we can book a a 50% gain on this one. Bank debt is now scheduled for repayment by March 31, 2007 and they have arranged financing for their latest acquisition.
Rumour is that their will be an announcement this Monday. Not holding our breath though.
Up 15% HOLD.
We managed a small gain last week and are up 4.9% so far in 2007, while the DOW, NASDAQ and the S+P 500 are all down 2-3%, and all were down again last week.
Earnings on MIVA and QADI and news on SPNC and PDLI last week. RITT continued to barrel along and is now up 77%.
The model portfolio assumes $10,000 invested in each stock, less $10 commission each way (TD Ameritrade rate).
Spectranetics (SPNC-Recommended 9/2/2006)
Buy price $10.65, Valuation $18-$20
Jumped $.89 to $10.60 last week.
SPNC released news that the FDA has allowed them to end their CELLO enrollment (after 61 enrollees instead of the planed 85) early based on good preliminary results. This is terrific news. Is all goes well, we could see some revenue from "above-the-knee" procedures before the end of the year--which is not included in the Company's projections. They also presented at Citigroup last week. This is a great company with great prospects that is executing well--but the stock continues to lag.
Now down .5% so far. BUY.
QAD Inc. (QADI-Recommended 6/14/2006)
Buy price $6.93, NEW Valuation $15.92 (was $13.69 $13.73 and $11.86)
Closed at $8.61, up $.15.
Trading at 54% of our new valuation of $15.92. Earnings last week were good. Revenues up 11% to $66.5 million and they made $.14 per share. For 2008 they are projecting $254-$266 million in revenue and $.26 to $.36 per share in net income (including $.12 per share for stock compensation expense) Has $1.19 in cash also.
Up 24% so far. BUY.
PDL BioPharma Inc. (PDLI-Recommended 5/21/2006)
Buy price $19.31, Valuation > $30
Closed at $18.72, up $.02.
On March 12th, PDLI "said the ongoing mid-stage trial of daclizumab, a humanized monoclonal antibody, met its main goal in relapsing multiple sclerosis." This drug is a collaboration with Biogen. The stock got up to $19.55 at one point last week, but then drifted back down to end up only $.02.
Activist investment firm Third Point LLC, which owns 8 million shares or 7.5% of the company, continues to lurk in the background. We think that PDLI is a bargain at this price. This however, remains a very volatile stock.
Now down 3%. BUY.
MIVA Inc. (MIVA-Recommended 3/18/2006)
Buy price $3.80, NEW Valuation $7.37 (was $7.52, $7.38 and $9.10)
MIVA closed at $3.65, down $.34.
Earnings last week were not dazzling. Revenues were up less than 1% from the prior year and they lost $6.2 million. They continue to cut expenses and expect to continue this in Q1 2007. Even so, our valuation did not drop very much, so we will hold the course here for a while longer.
Now down 4%. HOLD.
DataWatch Corp. (DWCH-Recommended 2/12/2006)
Buy price $3.21 (averaged down from $3.66), Valuation $8.32 (was $7.50, $7.63, $9.31)
Closed at $2.98, down $.01 for the week.
No news other than some more executive promotions. Go figure.
Now down 7%. BUY.
Inforte Corp. (INFT-Bought January 13, 2006)
Buy price $4.11, Valuation $6.13 (was $6.95, $6.86)
Down $.08 to $3.44 last week.
No news.
Has $2.64 per share in cash. Price objective $5.50.
Now down 16%. HOLD.
Mobius Management Systems (MOBI-Recommended 11/12/2006)
Buy price $6.68 (averaged down from $7.08), Valuation $12.82, was $12.69
Up $.15 to $7.36 last week.
No news.
Up 10%. HOLD.
RiT Technologies (RITT-Recommended 11/12/2006)
Buy price $1.00, Valuation $3.36 (Was $2.69)
Closed up $.09 at $1.77 last week.
No news. Looks like this one still wants to go higher.
Up 77%. HOLD.
Parlux Fragrances (PARL-Recommended 11/30/2006)
Buy price $6.65, Valuation $13.77)
PARL closed at $5.80, up $.01 last week.
We think the stock price will continue to vacillate for a while until we get some positive news. Even a 10Q filing might cause this one to spike up.
Down 13%. BUY.
Blonder Tongue Laboratories (BDR-Recommended 3/4/2007)
Buy price $1.83, Valuation $5.88.
Closed at $1.80 down $.01 for the week.
No news.
Down 1.6%. BUY
OB-abies (Bulletin Board Listed Stocks)
ARI Networks (ARIS.ob-Recommended 8/19/2006)
Buy price $2.06, Valuation $5.03 (was $5.28, $5.28, $5.21)
Closed at $2.10, unchanged last week.
This stock is still illiquid, so price moves are fairly meaningless at this point.
Now up 2%. BUY. Still a Huge valuation gap here.
Lion Inc. (LINN.ob-Recommended 4/15/2006)
Buy price $.36, Valuation $.57 (was $.62, $.66 and before that-$.79)
Closed at $.24, down $.03 last week.
Still trading at only 42% of our current valuation. We will give LION another quarter ot two to see if they can turn things around. They are still "cheap" compared to our valuation.
Down 33%. HOLD until we get some revenue growth and stop losing money (same story as last quarter).
OPTIO Software Inc. (OPTO.ob-Recommended 3/22/2006)
Buy price $1.25, Valuation $2.89 (was $2.54 and 2.88)
Closed at $1.44, down $.11 last week.
No news and volume was light. Has $.44 in cash per share. We have now dropped out of the $1.60-$1.70 range and even below the $1.50 level that took so long to reach. Still hoping we will see north of $2.00 this year.
15% gain so far. HOLD.
Avatech Solutions Inc. (AVSO.ob-Bought November 28, 2005)
Buy price $1.19, Valuation $3.29 (was $2.69, $3.36, $3.81)
Stock closed at $1.70, up $.07.
Looks like the "block overhang" got out of the way last week. Maybe we move higher from here.
Now up 43%. HOLD.
CTI Holdings (CTIG.ob-Recommended 2/25/2006)
Buy price $.27 ask, Valuation $1.28 (Was $1.13, $1.05, $.82)
Ask price stayed at $.35. Closed at $.34.
No news.
Up 30% based on the ASK price. BUY
INYX Inc. (IYXI.ob-Bought January 3, 2006)
Buy price $1.91, Valuation--over $3.00)
Closed at $2.23, up $.04 last week.
Still waiting on the "attractive cash offer" that was promised by the end of February. Hopefully the offer will come, and it will be attractive by our standards and be at least $3 per share--so we can book a a 50% gain on this one. Bank debt is now scheduled for repayment by March 31, 2007 and they have arranged financing for their latest acquisition.
Rumour is that their will be an announcement this Monday. Not holding our breath though.
Up 15% HOLD.
posted by Cheap Stock Investor | 8:49 AM
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