3/31/07 Update
Last week we went 8 up and 8 down and 1 even. LINN.ob holds first place on our "biggest dog" list (by far) followed by PARL, INFT, DWCH, ARIS, and ILOG. For the week, 2007 year-to-date, and since we started this Blog in January 2006, our model portfolio is +2.3%,+8.75% and +25.5% respectively. Since inception we are 15 stocks up and 6 down (3 of which are down less than 10%).
We managed another a 2% gain last week and are up 8.75% so far in 2007, while the DOW, NASDAQ and the S+P 500 all fell last week by 1% to 1.4%, and are all now hovering around breakeven for the year.
We closed out INYX last week and added ILOG.
We are officially "doubling" up on Parlux this week.
Since inception we have closed out the following positions:
NTCT +44%
ONXS +11%
DTLK +41%
CAW +21%
IYXI.ob +44%
The model portfolio assumes $10,000 invested in each stock, less $10 commission each way (TD Ameritrade rate).
Interesting week. CTIG.ob perked up, Parlux in moving towards SEC compliance, news on LINN.ob, MIVA and DWCH. RITT bouced back to +76%.
Spectranetics (SPNC-Recommended 9/2/2006)
Buy price $10.65, Valuation $18-$20
Down $.03 to $10.70 last week.
This is a great company with great prospects that is executing well--but the stock continues to lag. The shorts, for whatever reason, have been playing this stock for months. When it breaks out--it should be very, very, good.
No news.
Now up .5% so far. BUY.
QAD Inc. (QADI-Recommended 6/14/2006)
Buy price $6.93, Valuation $15.92 (was $13.69 $13.73 and $11.86)
Closed at $9.10, down $.17.
No news.
Trading at 57% of our valuation.
Up 31% so far. BUY.
PDL BioPharma Inc. (PDLI-Recommended 5/21/2006)
Buy price $19.31, Valuation > $30
Closed at $21.70, up $1.66.
Activist investment firm Third Point LLC, which owns 8 million shares or 7.5% of the company, continues to lurk in the background. We think that PDLI is a bargain at this price. This however, remains a very volatile stock.
No news last week.
Now up 12%. HOLD.
MIVA Inc. (MIVA-Recommended 3/18/2006)
Buy price $3.80, NEW Valuation $7.37 (was $7.52, $7.38 and $9.10)
MIVA closed at $3.84, up $.05.
MIVA announced a deal with Conde Nast for a new pay-per-click deal, beating out Google and Yahoo. CN publishes GQ and Vogue among other publications.
Now up 1%. HOLD.
DataWatch Corp. (DWCH-Recommended 2/12/2006)
Buy price $3.21 (averaged down from $3.66), Valuation $8.32 (was $7.50, $7.63, $9.31)
Closed at $2.90, down $.05 for the week.
Hired a new CFO, but no impact to the stock price.
Now down 10%. BUY.
Inforte Corp. (INFT-Bought January 13, 2006)
Buy price $4.11, Valuation $6.13 (was $6.95, $6.86)
Closed up $.05 at $3.49 last week.
No news.
Has $2.64 per share in cash. Price objective $5.50.
Now down 15%. HOLD.
Mobius Management Systems (MOBI-Recommended 11/12/2006)
Buy price $6.68 (averaged down from $7.08), Valuation $12.82, was $12.69
Up $.12 to $7.35 last week.
No news.
Up 10%. HOLD.
RiT Technologies (RITT-Recommended 11/12/2006)
Buy price $1.00, Valuation $3.36 (Was $2.69)
Closed up $.06 at $1.76 last week.
No news.
Normally this would still be a "buy", but with the fast run-up, we are cautious.
Up 76%. HOLD.
Parlux Fragrances (PARL-Recommended 11/30/2006)
Buy price $6.65, Valuation $13.77)
PARL closed at $5.58, down $.41 last week.
Parlux finally filed their September 30, 2006 Form 10Q. This was old news, but at least they are moving towards SEC compliance. They are asking the SEC for another extention for their December 31, numbers (Q3)until April 16. Our guess is that they will get it. We think the stock price will continue to vacillate for a while until they get fully compliant on their filings. We reran our valuation based on the 10Q filing and it is still over $12 (this does not include the Perry Ellis transaction and is based on one of their seasonally weakest quarters), so we are recommending averaging down by doubling up on PARL this week. New average buy price will be $6.12. We will of course update our valuation when they get their Q3, 10Q filed--hopefully by the April 16th date.
Down 16%. BUY.
Blonder Tongue Laboratories (BDR-Recommended 3/4/2007)
Buy price $1.83, Valuation $5.88.
Closed at $1.95 up $.16 for the week.
Earnings being announced on Tuesday at 11am EST. This could be good.
Up 7%. BUY
ILOG SA (ILOG-recommended 3/26/2007)
Buy price $13.60, Valuation $20.52
Closed at $13.57 last week, down $.03.
No news.
Down .2%. BUY
OB-abies (Bulletin Board Listed Stocks)
ARI Networks (ARIS.ob-Recommended 8/19/2006)
Buy price $2.06, Valuation $5.03 (was $5.28, $5.28, $5.21)
Closed at $1.91, down $.19 last week.
This stock is still illiquid, so price moves are fairly meaningless at this point.
Now down 7%. BUY. Still a Huge valuation gap here.
Lion Inc. (LINN.ob-Recommended 4/15/2006)
Buy price $.36, Valuation $.57 (was $.62, $.66 and before that-$.79)
Closed at $.20, down $.02 last week.
Now trading at only 35% of our current valuation.
Lion announced after the close on Friday that their Chairman and CEO resigned. Maybe this is the start of the turnaround. Also 1.1 million shares traded on 3/26. Pretty good for an "illiquid" stock.
We will give LION another quarter or two to see if they can turn things around. They are still "cheap" compared to our valuation (and unfortunately getting cheaper).
Down 44%. HOLD until we get some revenue growth and stop losing money (same story as last quarter).
OPTIO Software Inc. (OPTO.ob-Recommended 3/22/2006)
Buy price $1.25, Valuation $2.89 (was $2.54 and 2.88)
Closed at $1.59, down $.01 last week.
No news. Volume soared to 356,000 on Friday. Has $.44 in cash per share.
Still hoping we will see north of $2.00 this year.
27% gain so far. HOLD.
Avatech Solutions Inc. (AVSO.ob-Bought November 28, 2005)
Buy price $1.19, Valuation $3.29 (was $2.69, $3.36, $3.81)
Stock closed at $1.60, unchanged.
No news.
Now up 35%. HOLD.
CTI Holdings (CTIG.ob-Recommended 2/25/2006)
Buy price $.27 ask, Valuation $1.28 (Was $1.13, $1.05, $.82)
Ask price jumped $.05 to $.39. Closed at $.38.
Volume "soared" to over 200,000 shares last week. Stock actually traded at $.42. Hopefully with the Ryder acquisition, this one will get some attention. Still trading at only 30% of our valuation.
Up 44% based on the ASK price. BUY
INYX Inc. (IYXI.ob-Bought January 3, 2006)
Buy price $1.91, Valuation--over $3.00)
Closed out last week at $2.75.
Up 44% SOLD.
We managed another a 2% gain last week and are up 8.75% so far in 2007, while the DOW, NASDAQ and the S+P 500 all fell last week by 1% to 1.4%, and are all now hovering around breakeven for the year.
We closed out INYX last week and added ILOG.
We are officially "doubling" up on Parlux this week.
Since inception we have closed out the following positions:
NTCT +44%
ONXS +11%
DTLK +41%
CAW +21%
IYXI.ob +44%
The model portfolio assumes $10,000 invested in each stock, less $10 commission each way (TD Ameritrade rate).
Interesting week. CTIG.ob perked up, Parlux in moving towards SEC compliance, news on LINN.ob, MIVA and DWCH. RITT bouced back to +76%.
Spectranetics (SPNC-Recommended 9/2/2006)
Buy price $10.65, Valuation $18-$20
Down $.03 to $10.70 last week.
This is a great company with great prospects that is executing well--but the stock continues to lag. The shorts, for whatever reason, have been playing this stock for months. When it breaks out--it should be very, very, good.
No news.
Now up .5% so far. BUY.
QAD Inc. (QADI-Recommended 6/14/2006)
Buy price $6.93, Valuation $15.92 (was $13.69 $13.73 and $11.86)
Closed at $9.10, down $.17.
No news.
Trading at 57% of our valuation.
Up 31% so far. BUY.
PDL BioPharma Inc. (PDLI-Recommended 5/21/2006)
Buy price $19.31, Valuation > $30
Closed at $21.70, up $1.66.
Activist investment firm Third Point LLC, which owns 8 million shares or 7.5% of the company, continues to lurk in the background. We think that PDLI is a bargain at this price. This however, remains a very volatile stock.
No news last week.
Now up 12%. HOLD.
MIVA Inc. (MIVA-Recommended 3/18/2006)
Buy price $3.80, NEW Valuation $7.37 (was $7.52, $7.38 and $9.10)
MIVA closed at $3.84, up $.05.
MIVA announced a deal with Conde Nast for a new pay-per-click deal, beating out Google and Yahoo. CN publishes GQ and Vogue among other publications.
Now up 1%. HOLD.
DataWatch Corp. (DWCH-Recommended 2/12/2006)
Buy price $3.21 (averaged down from $3.66), Valuation $8.32 (was $7.50, $7.63, $9.31)
Closed at $2.90, down $.05 for the week.
Hired a new CFO, but no impact to the stock price.
Now down 10%. BUY.
Inforte Corp. (INFT-Bought January 13, 2006)
Buy price $4.11, Valuation $6.13 (was $6.95, $6.86)
Closed up $.05 at $3.49 last week.
No news.
Has $2.64 per share in cash. Price objective $5.50.
Now down 15%. HOLD.
Mobius Management Systems (MOBI-Recommended 11/12/2006)
Buy price $6.68 (averaged down from $7.08), Valuation $12.82, was $12.69
Up $.12 to $7.35 last week.
No news.
Up 10%. HOLD.
RiT Technologies (RITT-Recommended 11/12/2006)
Buy price $1.00, Valuation $3.36 (Was $2.69)
Closed up $.06 at $1.76 last week.
No news.
Normally this would still be a "buy", but with the fast run-up, we are cautious.
Up 76%. HOLD.
Parlux Fragrances (PARL-Recommended 11/30/2006)
Buy price $6.65, Valuation $13.77)
PARL closed at $5.58, down $.41 last week.
Parlux finally filed their September 30, 2006 Form 10Q. This was old news, but at least they are moving towards SEC compliance. They are asking the SEC for another extention for their December 31, numbers (Q3)until April 16. Our guess is that they will get it. We think the stock price will continue to vacillate for a while until they get fully compliant on their filings. We reran our valuation based on the 10Q filing and it is still over $12 (this does not include the Perry Ellis transaction and is based on one of their seasonally weakest quarters), so we are recommending averaging down by doubling up on PARL this week. New average buy price will be $6.12. We will of course update our valuation when they get their Q3, 10Q filed--hopefully by the April 16th date.
Down 16%. BUY.
Blonder Tongue Laboratories (BDR-Recommended 3/4/2007)
Buy price $1.83, Valuation $5.88.
Closed at $1.95 up $.16 for the week.
Earnings being announced on Tuesday at 11am EST. This could be good.
Up 7%. BUY
ILOG SA (ILOG-recommended 3/26/2007)
Buy price $13.60, Valuation $20.52
Closed at $13.57 last week, down $.03.
No news.
Down .2%. BUY
OB-abies (Bulletin Board Listed Stocks)
ARI Networks (ARIS.ob-Recommended 8/19/2006)
Buy price $2.06, Valuation $5.03 (was $5.28, $5.28, $5.21)
Closed at $1.91, down $.19 last week.
This stock is still illiquid, so price moves are fairly meaningless at this point.
Now down 7%. BUY. Still a Huge valuation gap here.
Lion Inc. (LINN.ob-Recommended 4/15/2006)
Buy price $.36, Valuation $.57 (was $.62, $.66 and before that-$.79)
Closed at $.20, down $.02 last week.
Now trading at only 35% of our current valuation.
Lion announced after the close on Friday that their Chairman and CEO resigned. Maybe this is the start of the turnaround. Also 1.1 million shares traded on 3/26. Pretty good for an "illiquid" stock.
We will give LION another quarter or two to see if they can turn things around. They are still "cheap" compared to our valuation (and unfortunately getting cheaper).
Down 44%. HOLD until we get some revenue growth and stop losing money (same story as last quarter).
OPTIO Software Inc. (OPTO.ob-Recommended 3/22/2006)
Buy price $1.25, Valuation $2.89 (was $2.54 and 2.88)
Closed at $1.59, down $.01 last week.
No news. Volume soared to 356,000 on Friday. Has $.44 in cash per share.
Still hoping we will see north of $2.00 this year.
27% gain so far. HOLD.
Avatech Solutions Inc. (AVSO.ob-Bought November 28, 2005)
Buy price $1.19, Valuation $3.29 (was $2.69, $3.36, $3.81)
Stock closed at $1.60, unchanged.
No news.
Now up 35%. HOLD.
CTI Holdings (CTIG.ob-Recommended 2/25/2006)
Buy price $.27 ask, Valuation $1.28 (Was $1.13, $1.05, $.82)
Ask price jumped $.05 to $.39. Closed at $.38.
Volume "soared" to over 200,000 shares last week. Stock actually traded at $.42. Hopefully with the Ryder acquisition, this one will get some attention. Still trading at only 30% of our valuation.
Up 44% based on the ASK price. BUY
INYX Inc. (IYXI.ob-Bought January 3, 2006)
Buy price $1.91, Valuation--over $3.00)
Closed out last week at $2.75.
Up 44% SOLD.
posted by Cheap Stock Investor | 3:21 PM
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