5/12/2007 Update
Last week we went 5 up and 10 down and 1 even. LINN.ob holds first place on our "biggest dog" list (by far) followed by PARL, INFT, ARIS.ob, SPNC, BDR and ILOG. For the week, 2007 year-to-date, and since we started this Blog in January 2006, our model portfolio is -1.3%,+15.1% and +32.8% respectively. Since inception we are now 14 stocks up and 7 down (4 of which are down less than 10%).
We were down 1.3% this past week and are now up 15.1% so far in 2007. The DOW, NASDAQ and the S+P 500 ranged from down .4% to up .5% last week, and are all now up from 6.1% to 6.9% for the year. We are still are up more than double the averages in 2007.
Since inception we have closed out the following positions:
2006-NTCT +44%
2006-ONXS +11% (Buyout offer)
2006-DTLK +41%
2006-CAW +21% (Buyout offer)
2007-IYXI.ob +44% (Buyout offer)
2007-MOBI +47% (Buyout offer)
The model portfolio assumes $10,000 invested in each stock, less $10 commission each way (TD Ameritrade rate).
MIVA announced earnings last week and QAD announced preliminary earnings last week.
Spectranetics (SPNC-Recommended 9/2/2006)
Buy price $10.65, Valuation $18-$20
Down $.28 to $9.84 last week.
No signiciant news. We are just waiting for FDA approval. If the TURBO-Booster is approved (no reason to expect it will not be), this should be huge.
Now down 8% so far. BUY.
QAD Inc. (QADI-Recommended 6/14/2006)
Buy price $6.93, Valuation $15.92 (was $13.69 $13.73 and $11.86)
Closed at $9.37, down $.26.
Earnings due Thursday, May 17th after the close.
On May 11th, QAD announced that they will miss their quarter numbers. Sales are expected to come in around $56 million instead of $58-$61 million and they will lose $.02-.04 (excluding stock expense BS) instead of making a penny or 2. Stock will probably go down, as will our valuation. However, we think the stock will end up being still significantly undervalued once the actual results are out.
Up 35% so far. HOLD.
PDL BioPharma Inc. (PDLI-Recommended 5/21/2006)
Buy price $19.31, Valuation > $30
Closed at $26.03, up $.40.
No significant news last week.
Activist investment firm Third Point LLC, owns 11.2 million shares or 9.7% of the company and has more than $200 million invested. They continue to exert pressure on PDL to improve shareholder value. This however, remains a very volatile stock.
Now up 35%. HOLD.
MIVA Inc. (MIVA-Recommended 3/18/2006)
Buy price $3.80, NEW Valuation $9.00 (was $7.37, $7.52, $7.38 and $9.10)
MIVA closed at $4.22, down $.15 for the week.
Earnings were OK. Sales were $43.2 million and they actually made a bit of money on a non-GAAP basis. Our valuation moved up to $9.00, as margins expanded and losses were cut.
Now up 11%. HOLD.
DataWatch Corp. (DWCH-Recommended 2/12/2006)
Buy price $3.21 (averaged down from $3.66), Valuation $9.20 (was $8.32, $7.50, $7.63, $9.31)
Closed at $4.95, down $.09 for the week.
DWCH pulled back a bit after jumping 42% last week. This one still looks cheap compared to our valuation.
If this gets to $7 we would sell.
No other news.
Now up 54%. HOLD.
Inforte Corp. (INFT-Bought January 13, 2006)
Buy price $3.74 (averaged down from $4.11), Valuation $6.13 (was $6.95, $6.86)
Up $.02 at $3.20 last week.
This IS ridiculous. Cash is 83% of the market cap.
Earnings are out on May 14th, after the close.
Has $2.64 per share in cash. Price objective $5.50.
Now down 14%. BUY.
RiT Technologies (RITT-Recommended 11/12/2006)
Buy price $1.00, Valuation $1.95 (Was $3.36, $2.69)
Closed up $.09 at $1.42 last week.
One good quarter should drive the valuation back over $3 and hopefully the price over $2.
Up 42%. HOLD.
Parlux Fragrances (PARL-Recommended 11/30/2006)
Buy price $6.12 (was $6.65 before double up), Valuation $8.63 (Was $13.77)
PARL closed at $4.85, up $.30 last week.
The new management has 2.2 million reasons to make this stock go up. Glenn Nussdorf paid $6 for his shares.
Down 21%. HOLD.
Blonder Tongue Laboratories (BDR-Recommended 3/4/2007)
Buy price $1.83, Valuation $5.12 (was $5.88).
Closed at $1.70 down $.05 for the week.
No news. Trading at 33% of our valuation.
Earnings out 5/15 in the morning.
Down 7%. BUY
ILOG SA (ILOG-recommended 3/26/2007)
Buy price $13.60, Valuation $20.99 (was $20.52)
Closed at $12.70 last week, up $.09.
No news.
Down 7%. BUY
Celebrate Express (BDAY-recommended 4/17/2007
Buy Price $8.82, Valuation $18.18
Down $.09 to $9.03 last week
With the insider buying in the last couple of months, we like this stock alot.
Up 2%. BUY
OB-abies (Bulletin Board Listed Stocks)
Our OB's continued to be pretty much ignored last week as there are other stocks to chase with the strong markets.
ARI Networks (ARIS.ob-Recommended 8/19/2006)
Buy price $2.06, Valuation $5.03 (was $5.28, $5.28, $5.21)
Closed at $1.90, down $.10 last week.
No news.
This stock is still illiquid, so price moves are fairly meaningless at this point.
Now down 8%. BUY. Still a Huge valuation gap here.
Lion Inc. (LINN.ob-Recommended 4/15/2006)
Buy price $.36, Valuation $.57 (was $.62, $.66 and before that-$.79)
Closed at $.16, down another $.02 last week.
Now trading at only 28% of our current valuation.
This one has cost us 4% off our total 2007 performance so far.
We will give LION another quarter or two to see if they can turn things around.
Down 56%. HOLD until we get some revenue growth and stop losing money (same story as last quarter(s)).
OPTIO Software Inc. (OPTO.ob-Recommended 3/22/2006)
Buy price $1.25, Valuation $2.89 (was $2.89, $2.54 and 2.88)
Closed at $1.27, down $.03 last week.
Has cash of $.47 per share--35% of the market cap.
Still hoping we will see north of $2.00 this year.
No news.
2% gain so far. BUY.
Avatech Solutions Inc. (AVSO.ob-Bought November 28, 2005)
Buy price $1.19, Valuation $3.29 (was $2.69, $3.36, $3.81)
Stock closed at $1.30, down $.10.
AVSO got below $1.20 for a while last week, but rebounded.
Earnings out 5/15 in the morning.
No other news.
Now up 9%. BUY.
CTI Holdings (CTIG.ob-Recommended 2/25/2006)
Buy price $.27 ask, Valuation $1.42 (Was $1.28 $1.13, $1.05, $.82)
Ask price was unchanged at $.42. Closed at $.40.
Volume was only 12,500 shares last week.
This is still trading at only 30% of our latest valuation.
No news.
Up 56% based on the ASK price. HOLD
We were down 1.3% this past week and are now up 15.1% so far in 2007. The DOW, NASDAQ and the S+P 500 ranged from down .4% to up .5% last week, and are all now up from 6.1% to 6.9% for the year. We are still are up more than double the averages in 2007.
Since inception we have closed out the following positions:
2006-NTCT +44%
2006-ONXS +11% (Buyout offer)
2006-DTLK +41%
2006-CAW +21% (Buyout offer)
2007-IYXI.ob +44% (Buyout offer)
2007-MOBI +47% (Buyout offer)
The model portfolio assumes $10,000 invested in each stock, less $10 commission each way (TD Ameritrade rate).
MIVA announced earnings last week and QAD announced preliminary earnings last week.
Spectranetics (SPNC-Recommended 9/2/2006)
Buy price $10.65, Valuation $18-$20
Down $.28 to $9.84 last week.
No signiciant news. We are just waiting for FDA approval. If the TURBO-Booster is approved (no reason to expect it will not be), this should be huge.
Now down 8% so far. BUY.
QAD Inc. (QADI-Recommended 6/14/2006)
Buy price $6.93, Valuation $15.92 (was $13.69 $13.73 and $11.86)
Closed at $9.37, down $.26.
Earnings due Thursday, May 17th after the close.
On May 11th, QAD announced that they will miss their quarter numbers. Sales are expected to come in around $56 million instead of $58-$61 million and they will lose $.02-.04 (excluding stock expense BS) instead of making a penny or 2. Stock will probably go down, as will our valuation. However, we think the stock will end up being still significantly undervalued once the actual results are out.
Up 35% so far. HOLD.
PDL BioPharma Inc. (PDLI-Recommended 5/21/2006)
Buy price $19.31, Valuation > $30
Closed at $26.03, up $.40.
No significant news last week.
Activist investment firm Third Point LLC, owns 11.2 million shares or 9.7% of the company and has more than $200 million invested. They continue to exert pressure on PDL to improve shareholder value. This however, remains a very volatile stock.
Now up 35%. HOLD.
MIVA Inc. (MIVA-Recommended 3/18/2006)
Buy price $3.80, NEW Valuation $9.00 (was $7.37, $7.52, $7.38 and $9.10)
MIVA closed at $4.22, down $.15 for the week.
Earnings were OK. Sales were $43.2 million and they actually made a bit of money on a non-GAAP basis. Our valuation moved up to $9.00, as margins expanded and losses were cut.
Now up 11%. HOLD.
DataWatch Corp. (DWCH-Recommended 2/12/2006)
Buy price $3.21 (averaged down from $3.66), Valuation $9.20 (was $8.32, $7.50, $7.63, $9.31)
Closed at $4.95, down $.09 for the week.
DWCH pulled back a bit after jumping 42% last week. This one still looks cheap compared to our valuation.
If this gets to $7 we would sell.
No other news.
Now up 54%. HOLD.
Inforte Corp. (INFT-Bought January 13, 2006)
Buy price $3.74 (averaged down from $4.11), Valuation $6.13 (was $6.95, $6.86)
Up $.02 at $3.20 last week.
This IS ridiculous. Cash is 83% of the market cap.
Earnings are out on May 14th, after the close.
Has $2.64 per share in cash. Price objective $5.50.
Now down 14%. BUY.
RiT Technologies (RITT-Recommended 11/12/2006)
Buy price $1.00, Valuation $1.95 (Was $3.36, $2.69)
Closed up $.09 at $1.42 last week.
One good quarter should drive the valuation back over $3 and hopefully the price over $2.
Up 42%. HOLD.
Parlux Fragrances (PARL-Recommended 11/30/2006)
Buy price $6.12 (was $6.65 before double up), Valuation $8.63 (Was $13.77)
PARL closed at $4.85, up $.30 last week.
The new management has 2.2 million reasons to make this stock go up. Glenn Nussdorf paid $6 for his shares.
Down 21%. HOLD.
Blonder Tongue Laboratories (BDR-Recommended 3/4/2007)
Buy price $1.83, Valuation $5.12 (was $5.88).
Closed at $1.70 down $.05 for the week.
No news. Trading at 33% of our valuation.
Earnings out 5/15 in the morning.
Down 7%. BUY
ILOG SA (ILOG-recommended 3/26/2007)
Buy price $13.60, Valuation $20.99 (was $20.52)
Closed at $12.70 last week, up $.09.
No news.
Down 7%. BUY
Celebrate Express (BDAY-recommended 4/17/2007
Buy Price $8.82, Valuation $18.18
Down $.09 to $9.03 last week
With the insider buying in the last couple of months, we like this stock alot.
Up 2%. BUY
OB-abies (Bulletin Board Listed Stocks)
Our OB's continued to be pretty much ignored last week as there are other stocks to chase with the strong markets.
ARI Networks (ARIS.ob-Recommended 8/19/2006)
Buy price $2.06, Valuation $5.03 (was $5.28, $5.28, $5.21)
Closed at $1.90, down $.10 last week.
No news.
This stock is still illiquid, so price moves are fairly meaningless at this point.
Now down 8%. BUY. Still a Huge valuation gap here.
Lion Inc. (LINN.ob-Recommended 4/15/2006)
Buy price $.36, Valuation $.57 (was $.62, $.66 and before that-$.79)
Closed at $.16, down another $.02 last week.
Now trading at only 28% of our current valuation.
This one has cost us 4% off our total 2007 performance so far.
We will give LION another quarter or two to see if they can turn things around.
Down 56%. HOLD until we get some revenue growth and stop losing money (same story as last quarter(s)).
OPTIO Software Inc. (OPTO.ob-Recommended 3/22/2006)
Buy price $1.25, Valuation $2.89 (was $2.89, $2.54 and 2.88)
Closed at $1.27, down $.03 last week.
Has cash of $.47 per share--35% of the market cap.
Still hoping we will see north of $2.00 this year.
No news.
2% gain so far. BUY.
Avatech Solutions Inc. (AVSO.ob-Bought November 28, 2005)
Buy price $1.19, Valuation $3.29 (was $2.69, $3.36, $3.81)
Stock closed at $1.30, down $.10.
AVSO got below $1.20 for a while last week, but rebounded.
Earnings out 5/15 in the morning.
No other news.
Now up 9%. BUY.
CTI Holdings (CTIG.ob-Recommended 2/25/2006)
Buy price $.27 ask, Valuation $1.42 (Was $1.28 $1.13, $1.05, $.82)
Ask price was unchanged at $.42. Closed at $.40.
Volume was only 12,500 shares last week.
This is still trading at only 30% of our latest valuation.
No news.
Up 56% based on the ASK price. HOLD
posted by Cheap Stock Investor | 7:38 AM
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